Here is one of many toys I use in my classes on Leadership in Complexity to demonstrate complexity through play. It is a simple and common toy – a double pendulum. It is interesting to see how interactions between few elements really produce complexity. So, the question that I ask at the beginning of a session – ‘Can we predict what is going to happen?‘
We have made a video demonstration of it. It is about 5 mins. Hope you would find it engaging. You may choose to skip it if you like. I suggest a try. While you are viewing it mentally start predicting what might happen the next instant…
Predicting Complexity? ( <– click on the adjoining link to view the video)
What do you find?
Is complexity predictable or not?
On the face of it it appears that it isn’t predictable at all. The movements of the loose limbs of the double pendulum simply go crazy. It is not or nearly not possible to predict. Every time we think something like this might happen it usually turns out to be something else. It appears that there are no definite patterns about it. It is too random to make sense. No doubt this is what always happens in complex adaptive systems.
But then I show how complexity can be predicted along with many of its principles.
At first it feels rather strange to realize how all complex systems or complex adaptive systems are inherently predictable as an ensemble in the short run and how they all follow the same rules of the game.
That is really fascinating. It gives us tremendous hope to embrace complexity with faith. There is no point in ignoring complexity since we are entangled with it every moment of our lives. But once we embrace it knowing fully well how to read, learn and go about it — life is simple indeed. The objective of learning about complexity and applying its principles is to make life simpler; not more complex.
That promises us an alternative way to lead our own lives through creativity and adaptation.
This alternative Leadership path can be summed up by three simple rules, which are —
1. Explain what is happening.
2. Institute methods to Foresee what might happen in the short term
3. Envision desired Interventions to make the system flow in the right direction.
Three of the best designed interventions that I found are a) Education b) Interactions c) Design. These give long term ongoing benefit for many.
So what do you feel and think about it?
(I personally thank my colleague Trichur for prototyping complexity through this model. )
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